30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
AccuWeather (2026)
AccuWeather. (2026, June 5). Latest analysis shows El Niño has arrived, official declaration may be imminent. https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/articles/el-ni-o-under-way-130132633.html