Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
82% probability of El Niño emergence between May and July 2026, with an upward trajectory towards a strong event. (World Food Programme, 2026).
82% is the probability that El Niño will develop by July 2026, according to a forecast cited by Reuters.
It increased 1.6% from its revised March 2026 level. It averaged 130.7 in April 2026. (FAO, 2026).
It increased by 0.8% compared to the level in March 2026. It averaged 111.3 points in April 2026. (FAO, 2026).
It increased by 5.9% compared to the level in March 2026. It averaged 193.9 points in April 2026. (FAO, 2026).
It increased by 1.2% compared to the level of March 2026. It averaged 193.9 points in April 2026. (FAO, 2026).
It decreased by 1.1% compared to the level of March 2026. It averaged 119.6 points in April 2026. (FAO, 2026).
It decreased by 4.7% compared to the level of March 2026. It averaged 88.5 points in April 2026. (FAO, 2026).
The price of basic foodstuffs increased by 6.1% after two months of blockade in Hormuz (INFOBAE, 2026).
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
