Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
63% is the estimated probability of a very strong El Niño between November and January, according to NOAA’s mathematical model cited by the source.
Region 3-4 of the Pacific Ocean is where Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states El Niño has already settled, with direct impact expected on Paraguay.
200 millimeters of rain in a single day may occur during localized extreme events associated with El Niño in Paraguay, creating problems for production.
September onward is the period when Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock expects El Niño could have a significant impact, coinciding with the start of the rainy season.
Latin America and the Caribbean require US$33 million to take action and protect 1.1 million people from the anticipated effects of El Niño, including those related to food security. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
In the Niño 3.4 region (central equatorial Pacific), El Niño would develop from June 2026 to March 2027. For the summer of 2026-2027, the event is estimated to reach a magnitude between strong (44%) and moderate (36%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
11 to 16 named storms are projected by AccuWeather for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; with El Niño arriving early, the forecast is leaning closer to 11 than to 16.
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
