Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
4 low-intensity, short-lived tropical systems had been observed in the 2026 Atlantic season by August 28; only Tropical Storm Dolly occurred in the main development region. Météo-France links this historically low activity to the strong El Niño and high wind shear.
62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
Among the most intense episodes observed since 1950 could be the 2026 El Niño: six-month seasonal forecasts indicate that the Niño3.4 index will continue rising and peak in late 2026, potentially reaching very strong intensity.
In July 2026, the Niño3.4 index exceeded a +2°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, a threshold that Météo-France classifies as strong El Niño intensity.
47.56% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought as of August 25, 2026.
43 U.S. states were experiencing Moderate Drought (D1) or worse during the week of August 19-25, 2026.
99.7 million people in the United States were affected by drought during the week of August 19-25, 2026.
68% was the reduction in output from the Haina-Manoguayabo aqueduct; output from the Isabela aqueduct fell 65%, while the Isa-Mana and Duey systems fell by more than 60%.
