Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, equivalent to 22.9% of the analyzed population.
147.4 million people were affected in contexts where conflict and insecurity were the main driver of acute food insecurity.
87.5 million people were affected in contexts where extreme weather events predominated as the main driver of acute food insecurity.
63% is the estimated probability of a very strong El Niño between November and January, according to NOAA’s mathematical model cited by the source.
Region 3-4 of the Pacific Ocean is where Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states El Niño has already settled, with direct impact expected on Paraguay.
September onward is the period when Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock expects El Niño could have a significant impact, coinciding with the start of the rainy season.
More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
11 to 16 named storms are projected by AccuWeather for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; with El Niño arriving early, the forecast is leaning closer to 11 than to 16.
82% is the probability that El Niño will develop by July 2026, according to a forecast cited by Reuters.
