Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
In July 2026, the Niño3.4 index exceeded a +2°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, a threshold that Météo-France classifies as strong El Niño intensity.
Among the most intense episodes observed since 1950 could be the 2026 El Niño: six-month seasonal forecasts indicate that the Niño3.4 index will continue rising and peak in late 2026, potentially reaching very strong intensity.
4 low-intensity, short-lived tropical systems had been observed in the 2026 Atlantic season by August 28; only Tropical Storm Dolly occurred in the main development region. Météo-France links this historically low activity to the strong El Niño and high wind shear.
62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
47.56% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought as of August 25, 2026.
99.7 million people in the United States were affected by drought during the week of August 19-25, 2026.
43 U.S. states were experiencing Moderate Drought (D1) or worse during the week of August 19-25, 2026.
From July 2026 to January 2027, FEWS NET projects widespread Crisis, IPC Phase 3, outcomes across Haiti, while some households will continue to face Emergency, IPC Phase 4, outcomes in the worst-affected areas. The most severe conditions are expected at internally displaced person sites in the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area, Lower Artibonite, and some communes of Centre and Nord-Ouest.
