Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.
58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
Region 3-4 of the Pacific Ocean is where Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states El Niño has already settled, with direct impact expected on Paraguay.
More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
