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El Niño lowers GDP and raises prices in Peru
2025
-0.6% is the estimated initial reduction in Peru's GDP associated with El Niño and the loss reaches up to -5% in the second year; the CPI is approximately 4% above the counterfactual after one year and inflation expectations increase by up to 0.45 percentage points.
Aguirre et al. (2025)
Aguirre, J., Ledesma, A., Perez, F., & Rojas, Y. (2025). Economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy after extreme weather events: ENSO and its economic impact on the Peruvian economy. BIS Working Papers. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1276.htm. Citado en Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), Los efectos del fenómeno El Niño en América Latina y el Caribe y recomendaciones para enfrentarlo, Cuadro 2. https://opsaa.iica.int/en/resource-3079-the-effects-of-el-nino-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-and-recommendations-for-addressing-it