Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
4 Latin American countries, Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Argentina, have the greatest exposure to an intense El Niño event in 2026, according to a Bank of America report.
2 components of inflation, food and energy, could increase in response to an intense El Niño event in Latin America during 2026.
Approximately 64% of the region's capture fisheries production in 2024 came from the Southeast Pacific. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
After a sharp decline linked to the 2023 El Niño phenomenon, the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) recovered remarkably in 2024, with catches increasing by almost 65%, from 3.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
894,000 migrants and refugees suffer from food insecurity in Peru. (World Food Programme, 2026). The El Niño phenomenon acts as a multiplier of this vulnerability to potential crop loss or fishing crisis.
17.5 million people (51% of the population) suffer from food insecurity in Peru (World Food Programme, 2026). The El Niño phenomenon acts as a multiplier of this vulnerability to potential crop loss or fishing crisis.
60% is the approximate probability assigned by Enfen to a weak El Niño event in Peru during 2026.
