Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
48% is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude during December 2026-March 2027 in Peru, while the probability of strong magnitude is 45% and moderate magnitude is 7%.
Coastal El Niño is expected to continue until mid-autumn 2027, with the highest probability of reaching extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and January 2027; between February and March it would remain between strong and extraordinary.
55% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude during December 2026-March 2027, while the probability of strong magnitude is 40% and moderate magnitude is 5%.
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
2 components of inflation, food and energy, could increase in response to an intense El Niño event in Latin America during 2026.
4 Latin American countries, Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Argentina, have the greatest exposure to an intense El Niño event in 2026, according to a Bank of America report.
Approximately 64% of the region's capture fisheries production in 2024 came from the Southeast Pacific. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
After a sharp decline linked to the 2023 El Niño phenomenon, the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) recovered remarkably in 2024, with catches increasing by almost 65%, from 3.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
