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75% chance of a historic El Niño
10/09/2026
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
Henríquez (2026)
Henríquez, P. (2026, 10 de septiembre). El Niño apunta a un récord: NOAA da 75% de chances de un evento histórico este 2026. Meteored Chile. https://www.meteored.cl/noticias/actualidad/el-nino-apunta-a-un-record-noaa-da-75-de-chances-de-un-evento-historico-este.html