El Niño heads toward a record: NOAA gives a 75% chance of a historic event in 2026

News article about the intensification of El Niño during 2026, based on the diagnostic discussion issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The article reports that sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0 °C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and that, during August, the Niño 3.4 index reached +1.8 °C, Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C, and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. It also describes subsurface anomalies above +10 °C and coupling between the ocean and atmosphere. According to the cited forecast, there is a probability above 90% that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during 2026-2027 and a 75% probability that October-December 2026 will qualify as a historic event. For Chile, the source mentions a possible association with increased precipitation in the central and southern regions during spring and summer, as well as warmer Pacific waters along the coast, while warning that impacts may vary among regions.