Unpacking the growth of global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture, forestry, and other land uses generate about one-fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions. To reduce these emissions, “decoupling” has been promoted—maintaining production while decreasing emissions per unit produced. The study breaks down the growth of agricultural emissions into three factors: increased output, emissions per unit of input, and total factor productivity (TFP). Using data from 1961 to 2021, it finds that TFP growth—producing more with the same inputs—has been key to reducing emissions on farms, particularly highlighting the role of increased land productivity in decreasing emissions intensity.