Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
2,944.15 million metric tons is the projected total world grain output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
822.43 million metric tons is the projected world wheat output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
533.85 million metric tons is the projected world milled rice output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
Usable water reserves across much of Argentina's Pampas region stand at 80-100%, per estimates from the SEPA-INTA system for the 2026/27 farming season - a scenario INTA links to the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon forecast for the October-December 2026 quarter.
INTA's NDVI monitoring (August 2026) recorded a significant increase in rangeland areas with below-average productivity, relative to the 2011-2026 historical baseline, across central Neuquen, north-central Rio Negro, south-central and southwestern Chubut, and the entire central area of Santa Cruz; the index remained low in Comarca Andina and in Chubut's Gaiman and F. Ameghino departments.
For September 2026, INTA forecasts above-normal precipitation continuing across most of Patagonia, with the exception of southern Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego (where normal-to-below-normal levels are expected), along with a higher probability of below-normal temperatures across most of the region.
+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
5 to 15°F above normal were temperatures across much of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee the week of September 8, 2026, worsening soil moisture deficits and driving widespread agricultural drought impacts across the region.
