Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Argentina's first-crop (early-planted) soybean recorded above-average yields in 91% of the farming seasons analyzed under El Nino influence, according to the AgroENSO tool developed by INTA and GEA-CONICET, presented as part of the 2026/27 season outlook.
2,944.15 million metric tons is the projected total world grain output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
822.43 million metric tons is the projected world wheat output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
533.85 million metric tons is the projected world milled rice output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.
INTA's NDVI monitoring (August 2026) recorded a significant increase in rangeland areas with below-average productivity, relative to the 2011-2026 historical baseline, across central Neuquen, north-central Rio Negro, south-central and southwestern Chubut, and the entire central area of Santa Cruz; the index remained low in Comarca Andina and in Chubut's Gaiman and F. Ameghino departments.
For September 2026, INTA forecasts above-normal precipitation continuing across most of Patagonia, with the exception of southern Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego (where normal-to-below-normal levels are expected), along with a higher probability of below-normal temperatures across most of the region.
10 to 15°F above normal were temperatures across large parts of Iowa, Missouri and Illinois (Corn Belt) the week of September 8, 2026, driving widespread agricultural drought impacts in south-central and southwest Missouri.
