Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
100 million people in LAC face water scarcity despite the region holding 34% of the planet's renewable freshwater (FAO, 2026).
0.6 to 1.7 percentage points of GDP could be lost by Andean countries due to El Niño, impacting agriculture, hydroelectric energy, and logistics, with the agricultural sector absorbing up to 82% of drought damages (Castellanos, 2026).
50% of Latin America's energy comes from hydroelectric sources, making the region highly exposed to El Niño; droughts force reliance on costlier thermal plants, raising agricultural production costs (Castellanos, 2026).
26% of climate disaster damages in LAC are absorbed by the agricultural sector on average, rising to 82% during droughts; equatorial Pacific warming also severely impacts Caribbean coastal fisheries (Castellanos, 2026).
52% of the population in Haiti are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC, 2026)
19% of 2030 Agenda targets will be met by LAC at the current pace — down from 23% the prior year — with 39% stagnant or regressing compared to 2015 (CEPAL, 2026).
45% of Caribbean SDG targets are stagnant or regressing, making it the lowest-performing subregion (13%) versus 19% in South America and 18% in Central America (CEPAL, 2026).
61% probability is estimated by WMO that El Niño will bring severe droughts to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in countries already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran conflict (The Guardian, 2026).
