Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Between 30 and 155 mm of rain could accumulate in Costa Rica's Northern Zone from September 14 to 20, 2026, the highest forecast range among the country's regions. The probability of an extreme event is low, at about 25%, and forecast uncertainty is also low.
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
13 eastern Caribbean territories experienced some degree of dryness during July 2026: Tobago, Barbados, St Thomas, St Vincent, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, St Maarten, Guadeloupe, St Kitts, Antigua, St Croix and Anguilla.
>70% is the probability of much below-normal precipitation across the northeastern Caribbean from September through November 2026, according to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
Before the end of 2026, El Niño is forecast to reach very strong intensity and peak toward the close of the year. WMO forecasts do not anticipate ENSO-neutral conditions or a return to La Niña during the outlook period.
Nearly 100% is the probability that El Niño will persist during September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027, according to seasonal forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts.
415.8 mm was the average accumulated precipitation in French Guiana from June through August 2026, the lowest total for that period since 1967 and equivalent to a 36% deficit, calculated using 13 reference stations.
By the end of November 2026, severe long-term drought was considered imminent in Saint Lucia and evolving in the ABC Islands, Antigua, northern and northwestern Bahamas, and Tobago.
