Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Targeted cash transfers reduce poverty approximately 2× more per dollar spent than universal subsidies in response to food price shocks.
45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger if the Iran conflict persists, as the poorest households spend between 50% and 70% of their income on food
25% of Brazil's corn exports are destined for the Middle East, increasing sectoral vulnerability (Canuto, 2026).
436 cancer risk hotspots linked to excessive pesticide use were identified in Peru, concentrated in the western Andes and southern coast (Honles, J. et al., 2026).
ENSO conditions are expected to remain neutral in Guyana, with a 55% probability of persistence through the season. (Hydrometeorigical Service of Guyana, 2026).
Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).
Soybean oil prices rose up to 3.4% in Chicago, reaching 69.68 cents per pound — the highest level since late 2022 — driven by the Iran conflict and new US biofuel blending mandates that materially increase biomass-based diesel demand for 2026 (Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru indicates that it reduced the growth projection for the agricultural sector from 3.0% to 2.5% in anticipation of a weak Coastal El Niño event. (BCRP, 2026).
15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.
