Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
11 to 16 named storms are projected by AccuWeather for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; with El Niño arriving early, the forecast is leaning closer to 11 than to 16.
19,467 producers and 41,073 productive projects have benefited from the agricultural insurance mechanism in crops such as coffee, rice, plantain, potato, cassava, cocoa, and maize.
85% of the premium is covered by the Agricultural Insurance Incentive for small producers, while medium-sized producers receive coverage of up to 35%.
COP 67.272 billion was enabled by Colombia to subsidize the purchase of agricultural insurance through the Agricultural Insurance Incentive as a preventive measure against El Niño.
More than 100,000 people in 250 rural communities benefited from anticipatory actions implemented in nine countries during the 2023-2024 El Niño event, with increases of up to 40% in maize and bean production in some Central American countries.
22% of global agricultural disaster losses are accounted for by the Americas, with losses estimated at USD 713 billion.
More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.
1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.
