Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
55% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude during December 2026-March 2027, while the probability of strong magnitude is 40% and moderate magnitude is 5%.
Coastal El Niño is expected to continue until mid-autumn 2027, with the highest probability of reaching extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and January 2027; between February and March it would remain between strong and extraordinary.
Usable water reserves across much of Argentina's Pampas region stand at 80-100%, per estimates from the SEPA-INTA system for the 2026/27 farming season - a scenario INTA links to the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon forecast for the October-December 2026 quarter.
Argentina's national maize yield exceeded the historical average in 10 of the 12 farming seasons analyzed under El Nino influence, according to the AgroENSO tool developed by INTA and GEA-CONICET, presented as part of the 2026/27 season outlook.
Argentina's first-crop (early-planted) soybean recorded above-average yields in 91% of the farming seasons analyzed under El Nino influence, according to the AgroENSO tool developed by INTA and GEA-CONICET, presented as part of the 2026/27 season outlook.
2,944.15 million metric tons is the projected total world grain output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
822.43 million metric tons is the projected world wheat output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
533.85 million metric tons is the projected world milled rice output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
75% is the probability assigned by NOAA that El Niño will reach historic intensity during October-December 2026, exceeding the +2.5 °C threshold in the three-month index used as a reference since 1950.
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
