Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Latin America and the Caribbean require US$33 million to take action and protect 1.1 million people from the anticipated effects of El Niño, including those related to food security. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
Latin America and the Caribbean consolidated their position as one of the world's leading net exporters of aquatic animal products, registering a trade surplus of $21 billion in 2024. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
After a sharp decline linked to the 2023 El Niño phenomenon, the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) recovered remarkably in 2024, with catches increasing by almost 65%, from 3.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
In 2023, the average per capita availability of aquatic foods (blue foods) in Latin America was 10.1 kg. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
In the Niño 3.4 region (central equatorial Pacific), El Niño would develop from June 2026 to March 2027. For the summer of 2026-2027, the event is estimated to reach a magnitude between strong (44%) and moderate (36%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
11 to 16 named storms are projected by AccuWeather for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; with El Niño arriving early, the forecast is leaning closer to 11 than to 16.
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
63% is the projected probability of a very intense El Niño-type condition occurring during the November-January period.
