Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the Iran war persists, with the Caribbean among the most vulnerable regions due to food import dependence and El Niño drought threats (The Guardian, 2026).
61% probability is estimated by WMO that El Niño will bring severe droughts to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in countries already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran conflict (The Guardian, 2026).
The price of urea in the United States increased by 34% before the planting season (Agrolatam, 2026).
Natural gas prices, the main input for fertilizers, increased by up to 50%, driving up the cost of the sector (Agrolatam, 2026).
Prices for nitrogen fertilizers in the US market have risen by more than 30% in recent weeks (Agrolatam, 2026).
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
24 vessels per day transited the Panama Canal during the 2023–24 El Niño drought, down from the usual 36, with draft restrictions set at 44 feet (Noll, 2026).
More than 80% of the fertilizers used in Latin America are imported, which increases regional vulnerability to external shocks (Mundoagro, 2026).
ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).
Uruguay will exceed 350,000 hectares of brassicas in 2026 — compared to 348,000 in 2022 — driven by lower nitrogen fertilizer dependency versus wheat and canola prices consolidated above USD 500/mt. (El Observador, 2026).
