Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
In the Niño 3.4 region (central equatorial Pacific), El Niño would develop from June 2026 to March 2027. For the summer of 2026-2027, the event is estimated to reach a magnitude between strong (44%) and moderate (36%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
11 to 16 named storms are projected by AccuWeather for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; with El Niño arriving early, the forecast is leaning closer to 11 than to 16.
63% is the projected probability of a very intense El Niño-type condition occurring during the November-January period.
Up to 35% of seasonal precipitation recorded in Chile is explained by ENSO, according to the post.
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
USD 1.1 billion in estimated economic losses were recorded for California's agricultural sector during the 2021 drought.
21% of the world's inland wetlands has been lost since 1700, representing approximately 3.4 million km².
10% of global agricultural land is affected by waterlogging or severe drainage constraints, reducing crop growth and agricultural productivity.
21% is the average reduction in wheat yields caused by mild drought conditions; rice yields decrease by 17% on average.
