Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
In the Niño 3.4 region (central equatorial Pacific), El Niño would develop from June 2026 to March 2027. For the summer of 2026-2027, the event is estimated to reach a magnitude between strong (44%) and moderate (36%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
11 to 16 named storms are projected by AccuWeather for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; with El Niño arriving early, the forecast is leaning closer to 11 than to 16.
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
63% is the projected probability of a very intense El Niño-type condition occurring during the November-January period.
Up to 35% of seasonal precipitation recorded in Chile is explained by ENSO, according to the post.
10% of global agricultural land is affected by waterlogging or severe drainage constraints, reducing crop growth and agricultural productivity.
4.3% was the average reduction in global annual rice yields between 1980 and 2015 due to flooding; losses reached 14% along China's eastern coast.
More than 60% of irrigated cropland experiences high water stress, while 11% of rainfed cropland and 14% of pastureland are affected by frequent droughts.
