Super El Niño 2026 may be strongest on record

ECMWF models project a super El Niño for summer–fall 2026, potentially surpassing the record December 2015 event (+5.04°F above average in the central equatorial Pacific). NOAA estimates a 61% chance of El Niño in May–July and a 33% chance it will be strong, with expected impacts including Caribbean droughts and reduced Atlantic hurricane activity.