Wet Days and Wet Spells Outlook: October to December 2026

A CariCOF technical outlook coordinated by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology presenting forecasts for the frequency of wet days, seven-day wet spells, very wet spells and three-day extreme wet spells across the Caribbean from October to December 2026. The outlook notes considerable uncertainty regarding rainfall totals but identifies a tendency towards lower than usual totals in the southern half of the region. Fewer wet days than usual are forecast for the ABC Islands, Barbados, the Guianas, Jamaica and Puerto Rico, with varying levels of confidence. Fewer wet and very wet spells are also expected in several island locations south of 20 degrees north and in parts of Guyana and French Guiana. Reported implications include slower recharge of large reservoirs and soil moisture, increased wildfire potential across the Guianas, and moderate to high flood and flash-flood potential in parts of the Caribbean.