El Niño Strengthens: Probability of Becoming the Strongest on Record Rises to 75%

Colombia's Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) reported a fourth consecutive moving quarter with El Niño conditions and a 75% probability that the event will become the most intense recorded since 1950. Forecast models indicate a probability above 90% of a very strong event during the final quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, as well as a probability close to 100% that El Niño will persist through February 2027. Possible impacts in Colombia include reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, water stress, lower river flows and reservoir levels, vegetation fires, and effects on agricultural and livestock productivity. IDEAM recommends strengthening hydrometeorological monitoring, updating water-management contingency plans, promoting efficient water use, implementing preventive measures against vegetation fires, and keeping monitoring and early-warning mechanisms active.