Impact of the 2026 El Niño phenomenon on agricultural activity in Panama

Technical report prepared by Rodrigo E. Cambra on the potential effects of the 2026 El Niño phenomenon on agricultural activity in Panama. The document analyzes expected rainfall deficits, higher temperatures, increased evaporation, and differentiated impacts across provinces and territories such as Chiriquí, Coclé, Herrera, Los Santos, Darién, Azuero, the Dry Arc, and the Ngäbe-Buglé comarca. It examines effects by agricultural commodity, including rice, maize, beef and pork, milk, cocoa, coffee, vegetables, bananas, melon, watermelon, chicken, and eggs. It also assesses risks for food security, basic food basket prices, rural employment, and agricultural value added. The report proposes an urgent package of measures over a 0-to-60-day horizon, including forage and water distribution, well drilling, credit moratoria, subsidies for animal feed, on-farm water harvesting systems, technical brigades, parametric insurance, mobile refrigerated collection centers, information campaigns, and public purchases of at-risk harvests.