Cascading disruptions in natural gas, fertilizers, and crops drive structural food supply vulnerabilities globally

Scientific article analyzing how international supply chains for natural gas, mineral fertilizers, and staple crops are tightly interconnected and can create structural vulnerabilities for global food security. The study integrates bilateral trade in natural gas, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, and eleven staple crops accounting for approximately 70% of plant-based calories into a cascading-impact model covering 208 countries, 20 geopolitical blocs, and the period 1992-2023. Under complete trade isolation, the article estimates that up to 22% of global caloric consumption could be lost. It also notes that food stocks provide limited resilience, with half of humanity living in countries with stocks lasting less than three months.