Inflation Report: Current Outlook and Macroeconomic Projections for 2026–2027

Periodic BCRP report on macroeconomic projections for 2026–2027. In Box 2, the document analyzes the impact of the 2026 Coastal El Niño, a weak event forecast to last from March to November, on Peru's agricultural sector, identifying the crops and regions at greatest risk: rice in Piura, potatoes in Lima and Ica, and export fruits (lemon, mango, grape, organic banana) along the northern coast. The event is estimated to reduce 2026 GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points, a significantly smaller loss than that recorded during the strong 2023 El Niño.