The Iran War Oil Shock Will Hit the Hungry Hardest - Cash Should Be Part of the Response

An analysis examining how oil price shocks, triggered by the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, are affecting food prices in low- and middle-income countries, threatening to push 45 million people into acute hunger. The paper proposes a policy response based on cash transfers targeted at the poorest quintiles, targeted fertilizer subsidies, and multilateral coordination to prevent export restrictions, drawing on impact simulations and rapid response experiences such as those during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.