Intensification of agriculture-forest frontiers: Land use responses to development and conservation policies in Brazil.

The study analyzes temporal and spatial patterns of crop and pasture intensification in agriculture-forest frontiers in the context of changing conservation and rural development policies. It focuses on Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean- and cattle-producing state, which encompasses the Cerrado and Amazon biomes. Using econometric analysis of remotely sensed data and agricultural surveys, he finds that cropland and grazing intensification is linked to greater forest conservation constraints and broader supply chain development. However, the effect of conservation constraints on intensification is smaller in regions with more remaining forest. The results suggest that targeted investments in supply chain infrastructure could promote intensification and reduce pressure to deforest, but must be combined with substantial, long-term disincentives to deforestation.