Positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) index very likely to emerge; El Niño warning continues, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). September, 2023.

The long-range forecast for Australia indicates that warmer and drier than average conditions are likely over most of southern and eastern Australia from October to December. The Bureau's climate model takes into account all ocean and atmospheric influences when generating its long-term forecasts. The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development likely during the spring. When El Niño Warning criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed about 70% of the time.