ENSO Warning System Status: El Niño Advisory, by National Weather Service (NOAA), August 2023

El Niño is projected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with a greater than 95% chance through December 2023-February 2024). El Niño continued as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Nearly all weekly Niño indices in the central and eastern Pacific exceeded +1.0°C: Niño-3.4 was +1.1°C, Niño-3 was +1.8°C, and Niño1+2 was +3.4°C. Area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies decreased compared to June. but remained positive, in association with anomalous warmth across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Tropical atmospheric anomalies were also consistent with El Niño. Beginning in mid-July, low-level winds were anomalously westerly over the western equatorial Pacific, while anomalous stellar prevailed over the eastern Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies occurred east of the eastern Pacific. Convection continued to improve around the international date line and was weakly suppressed in the vicinity of Indonesia. The Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the traditional SOI were negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected El Niño.