ENSO Warning System Status: El Niño Advisory, by National Weather Service (NOAA), August 2023
Alert-notification
12/09/2023
Description
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center maintains the El Niño Advisory and warns that the phenomenon continues to strengthen. It forecasts a strong to very strong event through at least January-March 2027, with a probability above 83%, and an 83% chance of reaching historic magnitude between October and December 2026. It notes that an event of this intensity makes El Niño-consistent impacts more likely, although they are not guaranteed.