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Probability of El Niño magnitude (region 3.4)
In the Niño 3.4 region (central equatorial Pacific), El Niño would develop from June 2026 to March 2027. For the summer of 2026-2027, the event is estimated to reach a magnitude between strong (44%) and moderate (36%). (Multisectoral Commission in ... -
Probability of El Niño magnitude (region 1+2)
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomeno... -
ENSO explains Chile rainfall
Up to 35% of seasonal precipitation recorded in Chile is explained by ENSO, according to the post. -
Intense El Niño likely
63% is the projected probability of a very intense El Niño-type condition occurring during the November-January period. -
Possible impact of El Niño on GDP (Peru)
It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
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