Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
The World Bank Group’s fertilizer index is projected to increase by 31% (y/y) in 2026. (Banco Mundial, 2026).
74.67% was the increase in the price of urea, rising from 415.4 to 725.6 dollars per ton between the start of 2026 and March 31.
Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).
Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
It is estimated that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have an impact on inflation of 0.4 percentage points due to increased costs of freight, fertilizers, petrochemicals, among others. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
USD 14,902.41 million is the projected size of the U.S. nitrogenous fertilizer market by 2035, up from USD 11,761.90 million in 2025, with a 2.39% CAGR from 2026 to 2035.
2025 was the year in which urea dominated the U.S. nitrogenous fertilizer market as the product segment with the largest share.
2025 was the year in which agricultural use was the leading end-use segment of the U.S. nitrogenous fertilizer market.
AI is transforming the manufacturing and application of nitrogen fertilizers in the U.S. by analyzing soil, weather, and crop behavior to support precise nutrient management strategies.
AI enables growers to use less fertilizer while maintaining reliable crop yields by supporting precise nutrient management strategies under uncertain market conditions.
