Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Soybean oil prices rose up to 3.4% in Chicago, reaching 69.68 cents per pound — the highest level since late 2022 — driven by the Iran conflict and new US biofuel blending mandates that materially increase biomass-based diesel demand for 2026 (Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
The price of fertilizers increased by up to a third in one month due to the conflict (Infobae, 2026).
The cost of sending a container to the Middle East reached $7,500, after tripling due to the conflict (Infobae, 2026).
Brazil's soybean production was revised down to 179 million tonnes (from 180M) due to excessive rainfall in northern and central producing states; Brazil's competitive discount makes it unlikely China will purchase an additional 8 million tonnes of soybeans from the US (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Brazil will allocate $2.9 billion to a new plan to reduce the impact of rising fertilizer prices on agriculture (Agrolatam, 2026).
Fertilizer-related outbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to their lowest level since January 2026 following Iran's announcement of the strait's closure on 2 March 2026.
44.8% of global fertilizer production is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region (Earth Platform, 2026).
60% of global fertilizer production is concentrated in five countries (China, USA, Russia, India and Canada) (Plataforma Tierra, 2026).
European ammonia production is 19% below 2019 levels (Plataforma Tierra, 2026).
