Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
In the Niño 3.4 region (central equatorial Pacific), El Niño would develop from June 2026 to March 2027. For the summer of 2026-2027, the event is estimated to reach a magnitude between strong (44%) and moderate (36%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
More than 0.5 °C was the weekly average sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, the main threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
11 to 16 named storms are projected by AccuWeather for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; with El Niño arriving early, the forecast is leaning closer to 11 than to 16.
30-40% is AccuWeather’s estimated probability that the event could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño”, with conditions potentially lasting through 2026 and even into 2027.
4.3% was the average reduction in global annual rice yields between 1980 and 2015 due to flooding; losses reached 14% along China's eastern coast.
21% is the average reduction in wheat yields caused by mild drought conditions; rice yields decrease by 17% on average.
3 billion additional people could be exposed to water stress by 2050 when water quality is incorporated into water scarcity assessments.
More than 60% of irrigated cropland experiences high water stress, while 11% of rainfed cropland and 14% of pastureland are affected by frequent droughts.
21% of the world's inland wetlands has been lost since 1700, representing approximately 3.4 million km².
USD 1.1 billion in estimated economic losses were recorded for California's agricultural sector during the 2021 drought.
