Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the Iran war persists, with the Caribbean among the most vulnerable regions due to food import dependence and El Niño drought threats (The Guardian, 2026).
Prices for nitrogen fertilizers in the US market have risen by more than 30% in recent weeks (Agrolatam, 2026).
Natural gas prices, the main input for fertilizers, increased by up to 50%, driving up the cost of the sector (Agrolatam, 2026).
24 vessels per day transited the Panama Canal during the 2023–24 El Niño drought, down from the usual 36, with draft restrictions set at 44 feet (Noll, 2026).
ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
5.1% rise in vegetable oil prices and 7.2% in sugar — its highest since October 2025 — were recorded in March 2026, both linked to energy cost increases from the Iran war (Ibáñez, 2026).
25% crop yield decline is projected from a 20% fertilizer cut if the conflict exceeds 40 days, affecting 50% of producer budgets (Ibáñez, 2026).
2.4% rise in FAO's Food Price Index in March 2026 reached its highest since September of the prior year, with crude oil near USD 120 per barrel due to the Iran conflict (Ibáñez, 2026).
Nearly 40% of Haitians survive on less than $2.15 daily, and experts warn the fuel hike will force 'impossible tradeoffs' regarding basic services and food access for already struggling families.
