Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
66.42% of the area of the United States and Puerto Rico was abnormally dry or in some category of drought (D0-D4), based on data valid as of September 29, 2026.
49.78% of the area of the United States and Puerto Rico was in moderate drought or a more intense drought category (D1-D4), based on data valid as of September 29, 2026.
1.33% of the area of the United States and Puerto Rico was in exceptional drought (D4), the highest-intensity category of the U.S. Drought Monitor, based on data valid as of September 29, 2026.
13% was the increase in the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index in the July-September 2026 quarter, its largest quarterly gain since March 2022; the source links the rise to Black Sea tensions and extreme weather and notes a strengthening El Nino threatening agricultural production.
The 2026 Primera maize and bean season ended under poor conditions in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. GEOGLAM reports that many subsistence farmers experienced losses above 75%, while some crops died at early stages because of erratic rainfall.
October-December 2026 forecasts indicate more than a 70% probability of below-normal rainfall in Honduras, Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and other parts of southern Central America. The outlook coincides with establishment and development of Segunda/Postrera crops and very strong El Niño conditions.
Strengthening El Niño conditions increase the risk of poor maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa during the 2026/27 season. During previous El Niño events, regional maize and sorghum production was around 10% to 15% below normal, and deficits exceeding 40% are considered possible.
4 key crops maintained favorable global conditions; maize faced alerts in 4 regions, while rice was affected in 2 Asian subregions.
From September 24 to October 8, 2026, average maximum temperatures above the 80th percentile and 30°C were forecast across 13 agricultural areas in the Americas, Africa and Asia.
As of September 28, 2026, droughts, cyclones, heavy rainfall and flooding affected rice crops and yields in Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Myanmar and Cambodia.
