Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.
15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.
The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.
Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.
33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell more than 95% (from over 100 vessels per day to fewer than 10), disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers essential for global agricultural production (UNCTAD, 2026).
25% was the yield increase achieved in maize crops across 25 states during 2025, with technical support and agroecological practices from Farmer Field Schools.
Peru's agricultural production grew by 5.64% in January 2026 compared to the same month the previous year, driven by an increase in the area under cultivation and favorable weather conditions.
Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia face an average of 144 days a year with heat that is harmful to coffee, almost four months under heat stress (El País, 2026).
