Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
In July 2026, the Niño3.4 index exceeded a +2°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, a threshold that Météo-France classifies as strong El Niño intensity.
Among the most intense episodes observed since 1950 could be the 2026 El Niño: six-month seasonal forecasts indicate that the Niño3.4 index will continue rising and peak in late 2026, potentially reaching very strong intensity.
4 low-intensity, short-lived tropical systems had been observed in the 2026 Atlantic season by August 28; only Tropical Storm Dolly occurred in the main development region. Météo-France links this historically low activity to the strong El Niño and high wind shear.
From August 31 to September 27, 2026, Météo-France forecasts rainfall totals clearly below normal across the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antilles. From September 7 to 27, the rainfall deficit is expected to range from slight to moderate.
Between +0.5°C and +1.5°C above normal are the temperatures forecast from August 31 to September 27, 2026, in Guadeloupe, Saint-Martin, and Saint-Barthélemy.
99.7 million people in the United States were affected by drought during the week of August 19-25, 2026.
43 U.S. states were experiencing Moderate Drought (D1) or worse during the week of August 19-25, 2026.
47.56% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought as of August 25, 2026.
66.57% was represented by the 1,343.89 million cubic meters of water stored in Dominican Republic reservoirs on August 21, 2026, according to INDRHI data.
54.5% was the rainfall deficit recorded in the Dominican Republic in June 2026; the deficit was 46.0% in May and 45.3% in July, according to an Indomet report.
