Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
19% of 2030 Agenda targets will be met by LAC at the current pace — down from 23% the prior year — with 39% stagnant or regressing compared to 2015 (CEPAL, 2026).
45% of Caribbean SDG targets are stagnant or regressing, making it the lowest-performing subregion (13%) versus 19% in South America and 18% in Central America (CEPAL, 2026).
45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the Iran war persists, with the Caribbean among the most vulnerable regions due to food import dependence and El Niño drought threats (The Guardian, 2026).
61% probability is estimated by WMO that El Niño will bring severe droughts to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in countries already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran conflict (The Guardian, 2026).
Natural gas prices, the main input for fertilizers, increased by up to 50%, driving up the cost of the sector (Agrolatam, 2026).
Prices for nitrogen fertilizers in the US market have risen by more than 30% in recent weeks (Agrolatam, 2026).
ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
24 vessels per day transited the Panama Canal during the 2023–24 El Niño drought, down from the usual 36, with draft restrictions set at 44 feet (Noll, 2026).
5.1% rise in vegetable oil prices and 7.2% in sugar — its highest since October 2025 — were recorded in March 2026, both linked to energy cost increases from the Iran war (Ibáñez, 2026).
