Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Nearly 30% was the year-on-year increase in grain harvests during intense El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2014-2016, due to productivity gains.
60% is the approximate probability assigned by Enfen to a weak El Niño event in Peru during 2026.
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
26% of climate disaster damages in LAC are absorbed by the agricultural sector on average, rising to 82% during droughts; equatorial Pacific warming also severely impacts Caribbean coastal fisheries (Castellanos, 2026).
50% of Latin America's energy comes from hydroelectric sources, making the region highly exposed to El Niño; droughts force reliance on costlier thermal plants, raising agricultural production costs (Castellanos, 2026).
61% probability is estimated by WMO that El Niño will bring severe droughts to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in countries already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran conflict (The Guardian, 2026).
ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
Uruguay will exceed 350,000 hectares of brassicas in 2026 — compared to 348,000 in 2022 — driven by lower nitrogen fertilizer dependency versus wheat and canola prices consolidated above USD 500/mt. (El Observador, 2026).
