Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Strengthening El Niño conditions increase the risk of poor maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa during the 2026/27 season. During previous El Niño events, regional maize and sorghum production was around 10% to 15% below normal, and deficits exceeding 40% are considered possible.
October-December 2026 forecasts indicate more than a 70% probability of below-normal rainfall in Honduras, Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and other parts of southern Central America. The outlook coincides with establishment and development of Segunda/Postrera crops and very strong El Niño conditions.
The 2026 Primera maize and bean season ended under poor conditions in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. GEOGLAM reports that many subsistence farmers experienced losses above 75%, while some crops died at early stages because of erratic rainfall.
2.5% was the cumulative decline in Nicaragua's agricultural activity during the first half of 2026, amid a rainfall deficit associated with the El Niño phenomenon that affected subsistence and agro-industrial crops.
9.6% is the projected growth in MERCOSUR cereal and oilseed planted area by 2036, while an increasing share of output growth would depend on improved yields and productivity.
18.7% is the projected growth in MERCOSUR cereal and oilseed production by 2036 under the scenario presented in the bloc's third Outlook.
As of 24 September 2026, the El Niño-linked drop in rainfall had lowered water levels at the Panama Canal, leading to a cut in the number of vessels able to transit.
Well below the peaks recorded during the COVID-19-linked disruptions of 2020 and 2021, the GOFI remained in mid-September 2026.
15% year-on-year was the increase in the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) in mid-September 2026, when it reached a four-year high.
Above its previous five- and ten-year averages was the GOFI in mid-September 2026.
