Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
An estimated 1 million people in Honduras are facing water shortages and crop and livestock losses due to the prolonged 2026 drought, according to an emergency assessment (DREF) cited in the August 2026 report.
Between April 1 and August 20, 2026, the Pacific coastal areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua received only 30-60% of their average seasonal rainfall, ranking among the driest such periods since the CHIRPS record began in 1981.
>70% is the probability of much below-normal precipitation across the northeastern Caribbean from September through November 2026, according to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
67% was the precipitation deficit recorded in French Guiana during August 2026, following deficits of 49% in July and 17% in June.
415.8 mm was the average accumulated precipitation in French Guiana from June through August 2026, the lowest total for that period since 1967 and equivalent to a 36% deficit, calculated using 13 reference stations.
Between 3 and 8 named storms were forecast for the Caribbean from September to November 2026; 2 to 5 could develop into hurricanes and 1 or 2 into major hurricanes.
Unusually low rainfall totals were forecast during the peak of the Caribbean Wet Season, with the highest chances of deficits in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, the Lesser Antilles, and the ABC Islands.
By the end of November 2026, severe long-term drought was considered imminent in Saint Lucia and evolving in the ABC Islands, Antigua, northern and northwestern Bahamas, and Tobago.
As of September 1, 2026, 49.51% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought (59.05% across the Lower 48 states), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Drought conditions worsened that week across the south-central United States and along the North Dakota-South Dakota-Minnesota border area.
3.75 metres was the observed level of the Paraguay River at the Bahia Negra station on 31 August 2026.
