Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
During the 2025-2026 agricultural season in the Peruvian highlands, the frosts of February 2026 affected between 50% and 100% of the quinoa, potato, and forage crops, with variable development, from good to fair. (National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru, 2026).
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru indicates that it reduced the growth projection for the agricultural sector from 3.0% to 2.5% in anticipation of a weak Coastal El Niño event. (BCRP, 2026).
It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
It is estimated that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have an impact on inflation of 0.4 percentage points due to increased costs of freight, fertilizers, petrochemicals, among others. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.
15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.
Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.
33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).
Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.
