Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
60% to 70% of rice growers have lost money for two years because of falling prices, according to the estimate cited for the rice sector in Huila.
COP 193,200 per 125-kilogram carga was the paddy rice price in Huila in late September 2026, compared with a break-even level of COP 208,000 to COP 209,000.
COP 10 million per hectare is the cost threshold exceeded by rice production in La Guajira, where low yields reduce its economic viability.
International maize prices rose 5.6% in September 2026, supported by lower yields in the United States and reduced export availability in Brazil.
The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 5.1% in September 2026 and stood 17.2% above its September 2025 level.
World sorghum prices rose 13.7% in September 2026, following broader feed grain increases and expectations of stronger Chinese purchases.
Strengthening El Niño conditions increase the risk of poor maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa during the 2026/27 season. During previous El Niño events, regional maize and sorghum production was around 10% to 15% below normal, and deficits exceeding 40% are considered possible.
4 key crops maintained favorable global conditions; maize faced alerts in 4 regions, while rice was affected in 2 Asian subregions.
October-December 2026 forecasts indicate more than a 70% probability of below-normal rainfall in Honduras, Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and other parts of southern Central America. The outlook coincides with establishment and development of Segunda/Postrera crops and very strong El Niño conditions.
The 2026 Primera maize and bean season ended under poor conditions in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. GEOGLAM reports that many subsistence farmers experienced losses above 75%, while some crops died at early stages because of erratic rainfall.
