Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
El Niño is causing below-average and erratic rainfall in Central America's Dry Corridor, reducing staple grain production among smallholders.
FEWS NET expects El Niño-related rainfall deficits to contribute to smaller harvests in Haiti in fall and winter 2026 and spring 2027.
Pacific, Bocacosta, Northern Transversal Strip, Petén and Caribbean regions could receive 150 to 700 mm of rain in October.
Rainfall deficits of 60 to 200 mm are forecast across parts of Guatemala during October 2026.
INSIVUMEH forecasts a 100% probability of El Niño conditions from September-November 2026 through February-April 2027.
The FAO Food Price Index reached 136.0 points in September 2026, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index stood 18.3% above September 2025, driven mainly by higher international palm oil prices.
13% was the increase in the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index in the July-September 2026 quarter, its largest quarterly gain since March 2022; the source links the rise to Black Sea tensions and extreme weather and notes a strengthening El Nino threatening agricultural production.
From September 24 to October 8, 2026, average maximum temperatures above the 80th percentile and 30°C were forecast across 13 agricultural areas in the Americas, Africa and Asia.
25.8 million children in Latin America and the Caribbean face the consequences of El Niño, including floods, droughts, risk of malnutrition, exposure to disease and limited access to basic services.
