Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).
Urea prices have risen by up to 50% internationally due to the conflict in the Middle East (La Nación, 2026).
Brazil's soybean production was revised down to 179 million tonnes (from 180M) due to excessive rainfall in northern and central producing states; Brazil's competitive discount makes it unlikely China will purchase an additional 8 million tonnes of soybeans from the US (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
During the 2025-2026 agricultural season in the Peruvian highlands, the frosts of February 2026 affected between 50% and 100% of the quinoa, potato, and forage crops, with variable development, from good to fair. (National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru, 2026).
It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru indicates that it reduced the growth projection for the agricultural sector from 3.0% to 2.5% in anticipation of a weak Coastal El Niño event. (BCRP, 2026).
It is estimated that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have an impact on inflation of 0.4 percentage points due to increased costs of freight, fertilizers, petrochemicals, among others. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.
15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
