Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.
33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).
Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.
The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.
18.5% of the final price of food purchased for at-home consumption in the United States was captured by producers in 2024.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell more than 95% (from over 100 vessels per day to fewer than 10), disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers essential for global agricultural production (UNCTAD, 2026).
Weak La Niña conditions are likely with 60% probability that neutral conditions will prevail during the March–May 2026 season. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
398 initiatives (57.9%) receive financial support from national public sources in the dataset of 687 Productive Articulation Initiatives (PAI) across 18 countries (2023–2025) (ECLAC, 2025).
23 countries in LAC recorded positive year-on-year productivity changes in 2024, according to the report’s analysis (ECLAC, 2025).
