Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
63% is the estimated probability of a very strong El Niño between November and January, according to NOAA’s mathematical model cited by the source.
70% is the potential decline in northern anchovy catch during an El Niño year, according to the estimate cited by Sonapesca.
25% of cherry production was lost during the 2023-24 El Niño, especially in early varieties, according to the source.
September onward is the period when Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock expects El Niño could have a significant impact, coinciding with the start of the rainy season.
200 millimeters of rain in a single day may occur during localized extreme events associated with El Niño in Paraguay, creating problems for production.
Region 3-4 of the Pacific Ocean is where Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states El Niño has already settled, with direct impact expected on Paraguay.
After a sharp decline linked to the 2023 El Niño phenomenon, the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) recovered remarkably in 2024, with catches increasing by almost 65%, from 3.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
In 2023, the average per capita availability of aquatic foods (blue foods) in Latin America was 10.1 kg. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
The sector that includes agriculture, livestock, hunting, forestry and fishing employed 3.2 million people in the country during April 2026. (Unidad de Planificación Rural Agropecuaria de Colombia, 2026)
There is a 61% probability that El Niño will develop between May and July 2026 (IDB, 2026).
